How to Spot Emerging Issues Before They Become Public Affairs Risks

The Risk of Only Reacting

“If you’re only reacting, you’re already behind,” says Jonathan Scharff, Vice President of Audience Intelligence & Performance at Avōq.

In an era where issues can escalate from a niche debate to a national headline in hours, reactive communication isn’t enough. Whether it’s a local ordinance gaining traction, a viral social post reshaping public opinion, or a wave of legislative “copy-cat” bills spreading state to state, the key to effective public affairs is spotting the signal before it breaks through.

For policy and communications professionals, that means building systems that track early trends, assess sentiment in real time, and align response strategies across teams — long before an issue dominates the narrative.

This piece unpacks advice from Jonathan to learn how early detection, data collaboration, and AI-driven analysis can turn reaction into readiness.

Seeing the Signal in the Noise

Avōq uses a Media Impact Analysis framework designed to “distill signal from noise” and provide “critical context” for decision-making.

The process starts by identifying what’s actually breaking through — which stories are moving from niche industry chatter into mainstream attention — and diagnosing their velocity and trajectory. “It’s not just about what’s being said,” Jonathan explained, “but who’s saying it, how it’s spreading, and what it means for your organization’s next move.”

This mirrors the intelligence layer Quorum brings to public affairs: by surfacing high-impact mentions, trending topics, and dialogue shifts among policymakers, teams can assess when an issue is likely to go viral and prepare responses before it peaks.

When One Bill Becomes a Movement

Jonathan showcased how local or state-level actions often serve as early warning signals for national policy momentum.

He pointed to a pattern in California and North Carolina, “You start with one or two local bans, then suddenly you’re tracking dozens of similar bills across counties and states. That’s when it’s not just an issue anymore, it’s a movement.”

For communications teams, legislative proliferation isn’t just a legal development; it’s a narrative shift. Each new bill or policy proposal adds visibility, legitimacy, and stakeholder pressure. The most sophisticated teams use technology to spot these legislative echoes in real time, tracing how they spread and coordinating messaging to shape the conversation before it crystallizes.

Reading the Room with Data

One of the session’s most practical insights came from Avōq’s Sentiment Analysis approach.

Traditional monitoring tools, Jonathan explained, “aren’t built for nuance. They miss the policy context and can’t distinguish between positive and negative sentiment when the language is inherently political.”

The solution: training an AI model within the client’s context. Jonathan recommends calibrating AI to interpret how tone shifts in coverage or policymaker statements may signal risk or opportunity. “AI doesn’t replace human judgment,” he said. “It amplifies it. It helps us understand why an issue is resonating, not just that it is.”

Public affairs teams using platforms like Quorum can apply a similar principle: combining machine learning with human analysis to track sentiment across statements, hearings, and social channels, translating unstructured data into actionable intelligence.

Collaboration as a Risk Prevention Strategy

Another key discussion topic reinforced that insights only matter when shared across functions.

Jonathan emphasized that audience intelligence can’t sit in isolation: “Your insights are only as powerful as your ability to get them to the right people, at the right time.” That means connecting analysts, communicators, and policy strategists in a unified workflow so early signs of risk can trigger coordinated action, not siloed responses.

Tools that centralize stakeholder engagement, track policymaker dialogue, and integrate alerts help teams move from scattered reactions to synchronized strategy. In Jonathan’s words, “It’s about expanding perspective and measuring impact together.”

From Awareness to Action

Jonathan closed with a challenge: “You can’t stop the next big issue from emerging, but you can be the first to see it coming.”

That mindset defines high-performing communications and public affairs teams today. It’s not about controlling the narrative but anticipating how it will evolve, using insight as a shield and data as a guide.

When you can identify early patterns, decode sentiment with precision, and collaborate across teams, you transform risk into readiness — and move from reacting to leading.

Key Takeaways

• Early detection is the new crisis management. Spot weak signals in media, legislative, and social data before they compound.
• Context beats volume. Understanding why an issue is trending is more powerful than tracking that it’s trending.
• AI augments, not replaces. Machine learning sharpens analysis but still needs policy expertise.
• Collaboration prevents escalation. Sharing insights across communications, government relations, and reputation teams keeps responses coordinated.

About the Speaker

Jonathan Scharff is the Vice President of Audience Intelligence & Performance at Avōq, where he leads data-driven strategies that merge communications, analytics, and policy expertise. His team’s work focuses on transforming complex information into actionable insight for brands, coalitions, and organizations navigating today’s fast-moving public affairs environment.