What to Expect in 2025 for Energy, Health Care, and Tech

In a much-anticipated discussion at Wonk Week, Axios journalists Maria Curi (Tech), Victoria Knight (Health Care), and Daniel Moore (Energy and Climate) offered insights into what lies ahead for their respective beats.

Moderated by Axios Editor and Publisher Nick Johnston, the discussion focused on what government affairs professionals should be watching as we near a pivotal election and a new legislative cycle.

The Mood on Capitol Hill

The panelists gave a rundown of the general vibe on Capitol Hill for their sectors, with a common theme: uncertainty and waiting for the election results.

• Tech Policy: Maria Curi described the current mood around tech as stagnant, especially concerning issues like Section 230 and antitrust. However, the growing excitement and challenges around AI have injected new energy into these debates. Congress is still grappling with how to regulate AI without stifling innovation. As Curi put it, “Everyone agrees something needs to be done, but exactly what remains unclear.”
• Health Care: Victoria Knight highlighted that most big moves in health care are on hold until after the election. However, there is a strong bipartisan push for reforms in Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) and telehealth, which are likely to see action before the end of the year. “If anything is going to get done, it will likely be around PBM reform,” Knight predicted.
• Energy and Climate: Daniel Moore explained that the focus has shifted from creating new legislation to implementing major bills like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The challenge now is getting clean energy projects permitted and built. Permitting reform, Moore noted, is the biggest issue on the horizon, with bipartisan interest in making it easier to build infrastructure like transmission lines and clean energy projects.

What’s Bipartisan Right Now?

Despite the partisan gridlock, there are still areas of agreement in all three policy areas:

• Tech: Combatting China is a bipartisan issue, with both parties supporting efforts to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., especially in the semiconductor sector. The Chips and Science Act is a prime example of bipartisan cooperation.
• Health Care: PBM reform and telehealth are areas where Republicans and Democrats find common ground. Telehealth flexibilities, introduced during the pandemic, are set to expire, and both parties agree on the need to extend them. However, the challenge lies in figuring out how to pay for these programs.
• Energy: Nuclear energy and reshoring critical minerals are two key areas of bipartisan support. Moore emphasized that both parties see nuclear energy as essential for the future and that there is growing alignment on reducing reliance on imports from China and Russia.

What’s Coming in the Lame Duck Session?

As we head into the lame duck session, all three reporters noted that Congress might pass some smaller, non-controversial bills, but don’t expect major legislation.

• Tech: The House AI Working Group is expected to release a report outlining a “hands-off” approach to AI regulation, favoring minimal government intervention to ensure competitiveness with China. AI-related bills could be attached to year-end packages, but don’t expect sweeping regulations.
• Health Care: Expiring programs like telehealth and community health center funding will need to be addressed, and Knight suggested that PBM reforms could be used as a way to offset the costs of these must-pass programs.
• Energy: The focus will be on permitting reform. Moore highlighted that while the Senate has bipartisan support for a reform bill, the House is more divided. There’s uncertainty about whether the two chambers can reconcile their differences in time for a lame duck deal.

What to Expect in 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, much will depend on the outcome of the 2024 election, but some trends are clear:

• Tech: If there’s a second Trump administration, expect continued demonization of social media companies and a hands-off approach to AI regulation. Under a Harris administration, consumer protections, especially in the realm of AI and data privacy, would likely be a focus.
• Health Care: The expiration of ACA subsidies in 2025 will be a major battle. Democrats will push to extend these subsidies, while Republicans are likely to oppose them. Knight predicted that if there’s a split Congress, we could see a deal that trades ACA subsidy extensions for an extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts.
• Energy: Under a Trump administration, some clean energy programs could face cuts, but core provisions like tax credits for manufacturing in red districts might remain. A Harris administration would likely double down on the environmental justice initiatives started under Biden.

Advocacy in a Dynamic Environment

The session provided valuable insights for government affairs professionals navigating a complex and uncertain policy environment. As Axios’ Nick Johnston pointed out, the stakes are high as we head into the election and 2025. For those working in public affairs, staying agile and informed will be key to shaping policy in the coming year.

For those looking to stay ahead, Quorum’s partnership with Axios provides access to critical reporting and analysis, helping professionals make informed decisions as they prepare for the next political cycle​.